2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament
Upsets, Underdogs, and the Champion Pick I'm Owning Out Loud.
Let me open with a confession.
I have been filling out brackets for thirty years. I have won maybe three pools in all that time. And before you close this tab, let me tell you what that number actually means.
It does not mean my process is broken. It means bracket pools are a chaos contest, not a process contest. The format rewards whoever nails the most upsets, which means the person who throws darts at a wall and gets lucky on a 10-seed Final Four run scores more points than the person who makes twenty well-reasoned, defensible picks that all go chalk. Winning a bracket pool and having a good process are almost completely unrelated skills.
Three pools in thirty years tells you more about how this format works than it tells you about the quality of the thinking behind the picks.
So, here is what I am actually trying to do. I am not trying to win your office pool by going chalk. I am trying to build a real argument for every pick, own it before the first game tips, and learn something either way. That is the whole deal with JPM Picks.
This year I actually like where my bracket lands. Let me show you why.
Quick note: Everything on JPM Picks is Just Paper Money, for entertainment and educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not gambling advice. Bet responsibly, keep it fun, and never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
The Field: Four Real 1-Seeds and an Open Bracket
The four 1-seeds are Duke in the East, Arizona in the West, Michigan in the Midwest, and Florida in the South. In that order, which matters for how the committee feels about each team.
Here is a number worth knowing before you fill out a single line: in the entire history of the modern tournament, all four 1-seeds have reached the Final Four exactly twice. Once in 2008, when Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA all advanced together. And once last year, when Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston all made it to San Antonio. Twice in forty years. The odds of it happening again in 2026 are long, which means at least one of these four programs is going to lose before the second weekend ends.
That is not a reason to avoid picking 1-seeds deep. Quite the opposite. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, 26 of 40 national champions have been a 1-seed. Fourteen of the last eighteen title winners came off the top line. The math still points upward. But somewhere in this bracket, one of these four programs is going to stumble, and figuring out which one is worth your attention before tip-off Thursday.
The Champion Pick: Michigan Over Duke
I am picking Michigan to win the national championship. They are the 1-seed in the Midwest region. The betting market has them right behind Duke at the top of the board. And yes, they just lost to Purdue in the Big Ten tournament final today.
I am still picking Michigan.
But before I explain why, I want to make the case against the team everyone else is going to pick first.
Why NBA Talent Doesn’t Always Win in March
Duke is the consensus favorite. They have the most NBA-ready players in the country, and the market loves them for it. I understand the logic. I just do not agree with the conclusion, and history has something to say about this.
The 2018-19 Duke team had Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones, all freshmen, all future NBA players. They swept the eventual national champion Virginia during the regular season. They were the most talented roster in the country by almost any measure. They lost to Michigan State in the Elite Eight. An NBA G-League squad could not get out of the second weekend.
The 2014-15 Kentucky Wildcats went 38-0 heading into the Final Four. Nine players from that roster eventually played in the NBA. Karl-Anthony Towns and Devin Booker were on that team. Nine future NBA players. They lost to Wisconsin 71-64 in the Final Four and never got their title.
The 2001-02 Duke team had Jay Williams and Mike Dunleavy, who went second and third overall in the NBA Draft that summer. Duke was ranked number one. They lost to Indiana in the Sweet 16.
And since I am picking Michigan, it is only right to include this one. In 1992-93, Michigan’s own Fab Five were the most talented team in the country and the favorites to win it all, right up until Chris Webber called a timeout Michigan did not have and they lost to North Carolina 77-71. Talent, meet March.
The throughline here is not complicated. NBA talent wins NBA games. March Madness is a different animal, and it has been proving that for forty years. Duke being loaded with lottery picks does not make them a lock. It makes them a favorite. Those are two very different things.
Why Michigan
Michigan is the 1-seed in the Midwest for a reason. The argument I keep coming back to is this: they have the best starting five in the country as a unit. Not the most individual lottery picks. The best five players who play together, trust each other, and execute on both ends.
They also do not see Duke until Indianapolis. That is six wins away. A lot happens between Selection Sunday and the national championship game, and a team built the way Michigan is built does not fall apart because of one conference tournament loss on a Saturday afternoon.
The market has them at +350 to win it all, almost identical to Duke at +330. The committee made Duke the overall 1-seed. The market is essentially calling it even. I am taking the side that has the better collective unit over the side that has the better individual talent, and I have forty years of March history backing me up.
Michigan over Duke in the national championship. It is on the record.
The 5/12 Matchups: The Four Games Everyone Is Watching
Every March, the 5 vs. 12 conversation is unavoidable. The history earns it. In 34 of the last 40 tournaments, at least one 12-seed has beaten a 5-seed. The clip since 1985 sits around 35 percent. You are not picking a longshot when you take a 12-seed. You are picking a coin that comes up heads more than a third of the time.
There is also this, which I cannot stop thinking about: no 5-seed has ever won a national championship. Not once in the history of the modern tournament. The 5-seed is somehow the most overvalued spot in the bracket. High enough to get respect, not built to go the distance.
This year’s four 5/12 matchups are not created equal. Each one has its own story.
St. John’s vs. Northern Iowa (East Region)
This is the matchup that does not deserve to happen in the first round.
St. John’s is a 5-seed that just won back-to-back Big East Tournament titles, beating UConn in the final on Saturday night at Madison Square Garden. They walked into Selection Sunday as the hottest team in the Big East. There is a legitimate argument they are playing better basketball right now than any team seeded above them in this region.
Northern Iowa is a 12-seed that plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, takes care of the basketball, and has a head coach with a track record of winning when it matters. They are not a typical 12-seed sneaking through a soft conference. They are a disciplined team that makes you work for everything.
The honest version is that both of these teams are mis-seeded. St. John’s probably belongs somewhere between a 2 and a 4 based on how they are playing right now. Northern Iowa is better than a 12. The committee put them across from each other anyway, and we get this matchup in the first round instead of the Sweet 16 where it belongs.
I have St. John’s advancing, but this is not a comfortable pick. Circle this game. It is one of the best first-round matchups in the entire bracket, and it is being buried under the Cinderella narrative when it deserves its own feature.
Wisconsin vs. High Point (West Region)
Wisconsin scares me as a 5-seed. Not in a bad way. In the the-rest-of-this-region-should-be-paying-attention way.
The Badgers beat Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue this season. That is four tournament teams from a conference that does not give anything away. They shoot threes at high volume, they keep turnover rates near the bottom of the country, and on a good shooting night they can beat almost anyone in this field.
High Point is the 12-seed on the other side. They are a fine mid-major program. They have not seen anything this tournament that remotely resembles what Wisconsin can do when they are locked in. This is the 5/12 matchup where I am least tempted by the upset. Wisconsin is a legitimate Sweet 16 threat, and if they get rolling in the first weekend, the West region conversation gets interesting fast.
Vanderbilt vs. McNeese (South Region): The Cinderella Pick
This is my Cinderella pick and I am not moving off it.
McNeese is not walking into March Madness without experience. They took down Clemson in last year’s tournament as a 12-seed. They have been in this building before, and that matters more than most people give it credit for in a one-and-done format.
The Vanderbilt side of this matchup is genuinely complicated. The Commodores just upset Florida in the SEC tournament, so they are carrying real momentum into Thursday. They are not a hollow 5-seed. This is a tougher matchup on paper than the seeding implies.
I still like McNeese. The historical edge is real, the experience is there, and a run into the second weekend from a team nobody outside their own fanbase is picking is exactly what makes this tournament worth watching every March.
And here is the one thing I keep coming back to: no 5-seed has ever won this tournament. The upside ceiling on a 5-seed, historically speaking, is not worth the risk of sleeping on a 12-seed with tournament experience and a system that knows how to win. McNeese is the pick.
Texas Tech vs. Akron (Midwest Region): The Most Storylines Per Minute
Save this one.
Akron just became the first program in MAC history to win three consecutive conference tournament titles. They did it by rallying from a double-digit deficit and winning on a last-second three against Toledo in the final. That is not a team stumbling into the tournament. That is a program that knows how to finish when the moment is biggest.
The Texas Tech side of this matchup is where it gets uncomfortable for the higher seed. All-American forward JT Toppin tore his ACL in February and is done for the season. Star guard Christian Anderson, who averages nearly 19 points and leads the Big 12 with over seven assists per game, dealt with a groin injury after slipping on the Big 12’s LED glass court and was cleared just today.
A banged-up Texas Tech team walking into a first-round game against a hot, experienced Akron squad with three straight MAC titles is not as safe as that 5-seed implies.
Watch the Anderson injury reports right up until tip-off. This is the upset spot I trust most in the entire 5/12 slate.
The Iowa Hawkeyes: Welcome Back to March
I am the biggest Iowa Hawkeye fan living in the state of Wisconsin. That is a specific kind of suffering that only people who have done it understand, and I am embracing it fully this week.
Iowa is a 9-seed, which is disappointing for a program with their history, but they are back in the tournament and that is worth something. They drew Clemson in the first round, and I think they get through that game. The Hawkeyes have enough to handle an 8-seed in a relatively even first-round matchup.
Florida is the wall. They are a 1-seed in the South for a reason, and even with the early SEC tournament exit, they are a different level than anything Iowa will see on the way there. I have Iowa losing to Florida in the second round. I am not upset about that prediction. Getting Iowa to the round of 32 is a good March outcome, and I am taking it.
Welcome back to the tournament, Hawkeyes. Let’s make the second round and call it a win.
Two Sleepers Worth Your Attention
Houston (South Region)
Houston is a 2-seed in the South and the team I trust most to give Florida a real fight in the Elite 8. They are well-coached, deep, and they play defense that travels to neutral sites. Florida had an early SEC tournament exit. Houston getting hot in the South region is not a stretch. I have them in the Elite 8 in my bracket, and I feel good about that path.
Michigan State (East Region)
Tom Izzo in March is a different variable than any seed number suggests. Michigan State has won more Quad 1 games than almost anyone outside the top four favorites this season. They are a 3-seed in the East, which means a gauntlet to reach the Final Four. But Izzo has done more with less, more than once, and a team that has beaten the competition Michigan State has beaten this year does not go quietly in the first weekend.
The Fade: Duke
I said it in the champion pick section, so I might as well make it official here.
Duke is the overall 1-seed. They are the betting favorite. The public is loading up on them everywhere you look, and the market has already adjusted to reflect it.
I respect Duke. I am not picking Duke.
The NBA talent argument is real and so is the history that argues against it. Zion’s team could not get out of the second weekend. Nine future NBA players could not get Kentucky past the Final Four. This is not a knock on Duke’s roster. It is a reminder that March has been punishing the most talented team in the field for forty years, and there is no reason to assume 2026 is the year that changes.
Duke futures are the price the public pays for the brand. The brand is real. The guarantee is not.
A Few Numbers Worth Knowing
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, 26 of 40 national champions have been a 1-seed. Fourteen of the last 18 title winners came off the top line. Picking a 1-seed to win is not boring. It is historically correct.
The highest seed to ever win the national championship is the 1985 Villanova Wildcats, who came in as an 8-seed and beat Patrick Ewing’s Georgetown 66-64. That record has stood for forty years.
No 5-seed has ever won the national championship. Not once.
All four 1-seeds have reached the Final Four exactly twice in tournament history, 2008 and 2025. The odds of a repeat in 2026 are long.
Since 1985, 12-seeds are 61-48-2 against the spread in first-round matchups. The public bets the 5-seed, the line adjusts, and the 12 becomes legitimate value even when they lose outright. That is the JPM Picks hook on every 5/12 game in this bracket.
The JPM Take
Michigan over Duke in Indianapolis. That is the pick, it is on the record, and I am owning it.
McNeese is the Cinderella. The Texas Tech vs. Akron game is the most interesting first-round matchup in the field. St. John’s and Northern Iowa are two misseeded teams that deserve a better stage than the first round. Wisconsin is the most dangerous 5-seed in the bracket. Iowa makes the second round and loses to Florida.
The bracket is more open than the market implies at the top. Duke and Michigan are the class of the field, but four legitimate 1-seeds means four paths where a hot team from the 2-4 line can change everything in one weekend. That unpredictability is not a flaw in March Madness. It is the entire point.
I have been doing this for thirty years and won two or three pools. The process is still worth running. The picks are still worth making. And if Michigan wins it all in Indianapolis in a few weeks, I will have something to say about that too.
Good luck with your brackets and try not to chase the losses.
One More Thing: Come Play With Us
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Entry is $10. Send payment via Venmo to Joshua-Myers-104 before you submit your bracket. Once you are paid up, head to CBS Sports, find the pool, and use the password JPMPicks26 to get in.
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This is JPM Picks. Just Paper Money, for entertainment and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Not gambling advice. Always bet responsibly and never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
--- Pick ‘em Paul