JPM Picks 2026 FIFA World Cup Preview
Goals, Groups, and a Pick to Win It All
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off June 11th, and for the first time since 1994, the world’s biggest sporting event is happening right in our backyard. The United States, Canada, and Mexico are co-hosting 48 nations across 16 cities from June 11 through July 19, and I have been looking forward to this one for a long time.
I was 14 years old the last time this country hosted the World Cup. I still remember watching a wild-haired central defender named Alexi Lalas play every minute for the United States, his red hair and beard making him one of the most recognizable faces in the tournament. He became something of a cultural icon that summer, the kind of player who made a generation of American kids think soccer was cool. More than 30 years later, I am using his power rankings as a primary research source for this preview. Full circle.
This tournament hits close to home in more ways than one. When the host cities were announced, I had one thing circled immediately -- taking my boys and my step-dad to a game. Three generations, the World Cup, right here in the US. The closest venue to us is Kansas City, and the plan felt as simple as it sounds. Make the drive, get in the building, watch the world’s game live. Then I looked at the ticket prices.
FIFA’s lottery system and dynamic pricing have turned a family outing into something closer to a car payment. The Argentina opener in Kansas City is running close to $2,500 a ticket on the secondary market, with quarterfinal seats topping $4,000. You can read more about the Kansas City ticket situation here. We will be watching from home, and FIFA should be embarrassed. The beautiful game has always belonged to everyone, and that spirit is getting buried somewhere between the lottery system and the VIP hospitality packages.
Enough venting. The soccer is going to be spectacular regardless of where you watch it. This preview breaks down all 48 teams, makes picks from the group stage all the way through the final, and tells you exactly who Pick ‘em Paul thinks is lifting the trophy on July 19th at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Let’s get into it.
The Format: What You Need to Know
For the first time in history, the World Cup features 48 teams split across 12 groups of four. Every team plays three group stage games. The top two finishers from each group advance automatically, and the eight best third-place finishers across all 12 groups also move on. That brings the total to 32 teams in a new knockout round called the Round of 32, which is essentially the old Round of 16 with one extra layer added before it.
That third-place qualifier rule matters, and we will come back to it when we get to the Group of Death conversation. The short version is this: finishing third is no longer a tournament-ending result.
The tournament runs June 11 through July 19 across 16 host cities, with the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
The Elephant in the Room: Where is Italy?
Before we get into the groups, we have to talk about Italy. The four-time World Cup champions are sitting at home for the third consecutive time, missing the tournament after losing a penalty shootout to Bosnia and Herzegovina in the European playoff final on March 31st. No other World Cup-winning nation has ever missed three straight tournaments, and Italy managed to do it in the year the field expanded from 32 teams to 48. The door has never been wider, and the Azzurri still could not walk through it.
It gets stranger from there. A Trump administration envoy named Paolo Zampolli publicly suggested that FIFA remove Iran from the tournament and replace them with Italy, reportedly as a diplomatic gesture to smooth things over between the US and Italy after a very public falling out between President Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. You can read the full story here. Italy’s own officials called the idea shameful and rejected it outright. FIFA dismissed it entirely. Iran is in the tournament and preparing to play their Group G games in Los Angeles and Seattle this summer. Italy is watching from the couch, same as the last two World Cups, and they earned that result on the field.
Italy sits at number 12 in the FIFA world rankings. Let that serve as a reminder that rankings and results are two very different things when knockout soccer is involved.
The Group Stage: All 48 Teams, Pick ‘em Paul’s Predictions
Before we get into the group-by-group breakdown, we need to address the Group of Death conversation, because sports journalists cannot seem to agree on which group deserves the title this year.
Most analysts are pointing to Group I -- France, Senegal, Norway and Iraq -- and the argument usually comes back to one name: Erling Haaland. Norway has the best striker on the planet right now, and the idea of watching him at his first World Cup is genuinely exciting. But let me push back on something. Soccer is a team sport. One elite striker does not a Group of Death make. If individual brilliance were the only measure, Egypt would be terrifying too, and Mo Salah has been doing what Haaland does for a decade. Group I deserves the respect it is getting, but the FIFA rankings tell a more complete story. England is ranked 4th in the world. Croatia is ranked 11th. Those two teams are sharing a group in Group L, and that conversation is not getting nearly enough attention.
Here is the other thing nobody is talking about. The Group of Death concept took a real hit this year with the expanded format. In previous World Cups, finishing third meant going home. Now the eight best third-place finishers across all 12 groups advance to the Round of 32. In Group I specifically, France, Senegal and Norway could all realistically advance. The stakes of finishing third in a tough group are simply not what they used to be. Keep that in mind as we go group by group.
Group A: Mexico, South Korea, Czechia, South Africa
FIFA Rankings: Mexico #15, South Korea #25, Czechia #41, South Africa #60
Mexico gets every group stage game on home soil at the renovated Estadio Azteca, and that matters. The crowd advantage is real in international soccer, and the Mexicans will feed off it. They drew with both Portugal and Belgium in March friendlies, which is encouraging. South Korea is the second most talented team in this group and has Son Heung-min, who has made the move to LAFC in MLS to get US experience before the tournament. Czechia snuck through the European playoffs by beating Denmark on penalty kicks, and they are a physical, set-piece-oriented team that can give anyone a tough 90 minutes. South Africa is the weakest team in the group and will be happy to be here.
Czechia advancing as a third-place team is the pick here. They have enough grit to grind out the four or five points needed to crack the top eight third-place finishers.
JPM Picks: Mexico and South Korea advance. Czechia as a third-place qualifier.
Group B: Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar
FIFA Rankings: Switzerland #19, Canada #30, Qatar #55, Bosnia #65
This group has one of the better storylines of the tournament tucked inside it. Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Italy on penalty kicks on March 31st to earn their spot here. Let that land for a second. Italy, ranked 12th in the world, a four-time World Cup champion, needed just one win to qualify, and Bosnia knocked them out on the biggest stage. That team is coming in with serious confidence. They are not here to survive the group stage. They believe they belong.
Switzerland is the highest ranked team despite Canada being the host nation, and the Swiss are exactly what you expect: disciplined, hard to break down, and ruthlessly efficient. Canada has more talent than ever with Alphonso Davies leading the way from the back, and they will have enormous crowd support in their home country. Qatar is the only team here I have no interest in defending. They went 0-3 as tournament hosts in 2022, scored one goal, and proved that you cannot purchase your way into being a competitive soccer nation overnight. Nothing about their preparation suggests 2026 will be different. Qatar goes 0-3, loses all three games, and flies home early. Money cannot buy goals.
JPM Picks: Switzerland and Canada advance. Bosnia as a third-place dark horse qualifier.
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
FIFA Rankings: Brazil #6, Morocco #8, Scotland #43, Haiti #83
This is the most straightforward group to pick and one of the more interesting to watch. Brazil and Morocco are clearly the top two, but neither should be taken for granted given the chaos that surrounds both squads heading into the summer. Brazil has not won a World Cup since 2002, has dealt with significant injuries to key players, and has the lovable but unpredictable Carlo Ancelotti now managing the Selecao. Vinicius Junior is healthy and ready to remind the world he is one of its best players. Morocco is no longer the surprise package they were in 2022 when they reached the semifinal. Everyone knows what they can do now, and new manager Mohamed Ouahbi has shifted the team toward a more attack-minded style that could cut both ways.
Scotland is back at their first World Cup since 1998, and their fans alone make this group worth watching. Scott McTominay has been exceptional for Napoli this season, but Scotland will need to take care of Haiti in their opener to have any chance of advancing. Haiti is making just their second World Cup appearance and their first since 1974. They are here to enjoy the experience.
JPM Picks: Brazil and Morocco advance.
Group D: USA, Turkiye, Australia, Paraguay
FIFA Rankings: USA #16, Turkiye #22, Australia #27, Paraguay #40
The home country picks it up in Group D. The United States will have deafening crowd support across their three group games and a relatively manageable path to the Round of 32. Do not mistake manageable for easy. Turkiye is the real threat here. Arda Guler has been one of Real Madrid’s best players this season and is only 20 years old. There is a new pragmatism to this Turkish side that makes them dangerous in a way they have not always been, and they represent the biggest test the US faces in the group stage.
Australia is always scrappy and loves nothing more than the underdog role in a tournament. They have no stars to speak of, which actually makes them harder to prepare for. Paraguay will try to grind and muck things up, which is a legitimate strategy in a group this balanced. The US needs to take care of business against Paraguay and Australia, then survive Turkiye in the final group game on June 25th. Australia advancing as a third-place qualifier is a live pick worth making.
JPM Picks: USA and Turkiye advance. Australia as a third-place qualifier.
Group E: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao
FIFA Rankings: Germany #10, Ecuador #23, Ivory Coast #34, Curacao #82
Germany has one of the easier draws in the tournament, and they need it. Julian Nagelsmann’s squad has real questions at goalkeeper, up front, and about whether Florian Wirtz can rediscover his best form after a difficult first season at Liverpool. Even a shaky German team is still Germany, though, and they should win this group without too much drama. Ecuador has what analysts have been calling a golden generation, built around Moises Caicedo at Chelsea and defenders Piero Hincapie and Willian Pacho. The talent is real. Whether it translates at a World Cup is a different conversation.
Ivory Coast is back at the tournament for the first time since 2014 and brings genuine attacking quality through Wilfried Zaha. They did not get here by accident. Curacao is the smallest nation in the tournament, a country of roughly 156,000 people making their World Cup debut. Every moment they are on that field is a historic one for them.
Ivory Coast advancing as a third-place qualifier would be one of the better stories of the group stage and it is a completely realistic pick given what is behind them on paper.
JPM Picks: Germany and Ecuador advance. Ivory Coast as a third-place qualifier.
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
FIFA Rankings: Netherlands #7, Japan #18, Sweden #38, Tunisia #44
The Dutch have a strong team on paper but this is not a vintage Netherlands squad by any stretch. Several key players are limping toward the summer after grinding club seasons, and there are genuine concerns about where the goals are coming from. Japan comes in with serious momentum after beating England at Wembley in March, and manager Hajime Moriyasu has built a team that works harder than anyone and never stops running. Viktor Gyokeres made the move from Sporting to Arsenal and has been one of the most productive strikers in Europe this season, which makes Sweden worth watching despite their ranking.
Tunisia has never advanced from the group stage at a World Cup, and nothing about this group changes that trajectory.
Sweden advancing as a third-place qualifier is the pick here. Gyokeres alone makes them dangerous enough to accumulate the points needed.
JPM Picks: Netherlands and Japan advance. Sweden as a third-place qualifier.
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
FIFA Rankings: Belgium #9, Iran #21, Egypt #29, New Zealand #85
Belgium has the most comfortable group in the tournament and should advance without too many problems. The bigger question for the Red Devils is whether their aging stars have enough left to make a deep run once they leave the group stage. Kevin De Bruyne is 35, Romelu Lukaku has barely played for Inter Milan all season due to injuries, and this squad is not the Golden Generation team that threatened to win a World Cup in 2018. The return of Thibaut Courtois in goal is a genuine boost, and Jeremy Doku on the left wing has become one of the most dangerous wide players in Europe under Pep Guardiola at Manchester City.
Egypt is the second most talented team in this group on the strength of one player: Mohamed Salah. At this stage of his career Salah is still one of the best players on the planet, and Egypt has never won a World Cup game. This might be their best chance.
Iran is the elephant in the room. They are ranked 21st in the world, technically the second-best team in this group on paper, and they are preparing to play three games in the United States while their country is at war with the country hosting the tournament. The geopolitical noise surrounding this team is unlike anything we have seen at a World Cup. A Trump administration envoy tried to have them replaced with Italy. Their federation has been requesting game relocations that FIFA denied. Read the full story here. There is an enormous distraction factor here that no FIFA ranking can account for. The pick is that Iran does not advance.
New Zealand is ranked 85th in the world and is here to enjoy the experience.
JPM Picks: Belgium and Egypt advance. Iran does not advance despite their ranking.
Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde
FIFA Rankings: Spain #2, Uruguay #17, Saudi Arabia #61, Cape Verde #69
Spain is the favorite to win this entire tournament at +500, and Group H is about as favorable a draw as the reigning Euro champions could have hoped for. La Roja have not lost a competitive match since March 2024, and the only real news worth monitoring is a hamstring injury to teenage winger Lamine Yamal. The Barcelona star is expected to recover in time, but any setback changes the calculus significantly. If Yamal is healthy, Spain is the best team in the world. Full stop.
Uruguay is the clear second-best team in this group and has the quality to advance without drama. Federico Valverde at Real Madrid is one of the best midfielders in club soccer right now, and even without the Suarez and Cavani generation, this Uruguayan squad is not a team anyone wants to face. Saudi Arabia fired their manager 56 days before their opening game against Uruguay, which is not the kind of stability you want heading into a World Cup. Cape Verde is making their World Cup debut and is here for the experience.
JPM Picks: Spain and Uruguay advance.
Group I: France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq
FIFA Rankings: France #1, Senegal #14, Norway #31, Iraq #57
Here it is. The group everyone is talking about. France is ranked first in the world, has the most talented and deepest squad in the tournament, and has everything they need to win the whole thing. This is manager Didier Deschamps’ final tournament in charge, and the pressure to send him out with a trophy is real. Kylian Mbappe leads the attack, though his preparation has been interrupted by minor injuries and reported squad tension at Real Madrid. France will be tested here.
Senegal is genuinely dangerous. They held opponents to just two goals in seven Africa Cup of Nations games, and when their rock-solid defense is paired with the attacking quality of Sadio Mane and Nicolas Jackson, they are a matchup problem for anyone. The June 16 opening match between France and Senegal in New York is one of the must-watch games of the tournament.
Norway. Let’s talk about Norway. Yes, Erling Haaland is the best center forward in the world and he is playing at his first World Cup -- Norway has not qualified since 1998, two years before Haaland was even born. That storyline sells itself. But here is the thing about international soccer that gets lost in the Haaland conversation: you cannot win it alone. Norway dominated qualifying, including two wins over Italy, but this team needs more than one great player performing to reach the knockout rounds. The question for Norway is whether Martin Odegaard and the supporting cast can deliver when France and Senegal are bringing everything they have.
Iraq qualified for this tournament in the most remarkable fashion, arranging a charter flight to Mexico for their intercontinental playoff after regional airspace closures made the normal route impossible. They beat Bolivia 2-1, ended a 40-year absence from the World Cup, and now get to play France in Philadelphia. That is a story worth appreciating regardless of the result.
As noted earlier, the Group of Death label loses some of its sting in this format. France, Senegal, and Norway could all realistically advance to the Round of 32 as group winner, runner-up, and third-place qualifier respectively. Norway advancing as a third-place team is the pick.
JPM Picks: France and Senegal advance. Norway as a third-place qualifier.
Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
FIFA Rankings: Argentina #3, Algeria #28, Austria #24, Jordan #63
Argentina is the defending champion, and Lionel Messi is 38 years old. He has carefully managed his playing time at Inter Miami all season specifically to arrive at this tournament in peak condition. The whole world wants to watch him play. Whether he still has enough to carry Argentina to back-to-back titles is the most compelling individual storyline of the entire tournament. It has never been done since Brazil in 1958 and 1962.
The more interesting conversation is who finishes second in this group. Austria is actually ranked higher than Algeria at 24th versus 28th in the world, and this Austrian team has been quietly building something impressive since Euro 2024. They held opponents to the lowest opponent pass completion rate of anyone in the World Cup field since the end of that tournament. That is a real number, not noise. Algeria has Riyad Mahrez and a strong attack but their defensive fragility is a legitimate concern.
Jordan is making their World Cup debut, which is a genuine achievement for a country that has been building this program for years. Their last group game against Messi and Argentina is a bucket list moment for every Jordan player who makes the roster.
The dark horse pick here is Algeria advancing as a second-place finisher, with Austria advancing as a third-place qualifier. Austria doing it on merit while ranked above Algeria is the kind of result that makes tournament previews worth writing.
JPM Picks: Argentina and Algeria advance. Austria as a third-place qualifier.
Group K: Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan
FIFA Rankings: Portugal #5, Colombia #13, DR Congo #46, Uzbekistan #50
Portugal versus Colombia on June 27th in Miami is one of the marquee group stage matches of the tournament. Two top-15 FIFA teams, both loaded with attacking talent, fighting for group supremacy. On the Portuguese side, the elephant in the room is Cristiano Ronaldo at 41 years old, playing in what is almost certainly his final World Cup. The man has every major club trophy imaginable and still does not have a World Cup title. The dynamic around him will either unite or fracture this team. Bruno Fernandes has been playing some of the best soccer of his career at Manchester United, and PSG’s Portuguese contingent gives this squad real depth.
Colombia enters as one of the most interesting teams in the tournament. Lalas himself had them ranked fourth overall in his power rankings. Luis Diaz has had a remarkable season with Bayern Munich. James Rodriguez joined MLS side Minnesota United to get US experience before the tournament, which tells you everything about how serious this team is about playing in front of friendly crowds. The pick here is Colombia finishing first, with Portugal advancing in second, as a nod to the South American heat advantage on US soil.
DR Congo qualified under their current name for the first time ever, beating Jamaica in extra time in the intercontinental playoff. They are back in the World Cup for the first time in 52 years. Uzbekistan is almost entirely domestically based and will find this level of competition eye-opening.
JPM Picks: Colombia and Portugal advance.
Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
FIFA Rankings: England #4, Croatia #11, Panama #33, Ghana #74
Here is the argument for Group L as the true Group of Death, and Pick ‘em Paul is making it. England is ranked 4th in the world. Croatia is ranked 11th. Those are the two best teams by FIFA ranking sharing any single group in this entire tournament. Group I has a higher average ranking because of France at number one, but the gap between the top two teams and the bottom two in Group I is enormous. In Group L, even Panama at 33rd is a legitimate soccer nation.
England has been knocking on the door for years under Gareth Southgate. Thomas Tuchel is now the manager and brings tactical flexibility and big-game experience that Southgate often lacked. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka is an attacking lineup that belongs in the conversation with any team in this tournament. The question is whether Tuchel can unlock all of them at the same time.
Croatia has no business still being this good. Luka Modric is 40 years old and playing for AC Milan, and he is still one of the best midfielders in Europe. Croatia finished second in 2018 and third in 2022. They do not rebuild. They just reload with the same generation of players and somehow keep competing at the highest level. That eventually runs out, but it has not run out yet.
Ghana is young, inexperienced, and probably a tournament ahead of their best run. Panama is back after missing 2022 and will be physical and hard to break down. Panama advancing as a third-place qualifier is the pick. They will grind out enough points against Ghana to sneak through.
JPM Picks: England and Croatia advance. Panama as a third-place qualifier.
The Knockout Stage: Pick ‘em Paul’s Full Bracket
The group stage sets the table. The knockout rounds are where the tournament actually gets made. Here is how it plays out.
Round of 32
The Round of 32 is brand new to the World Cup format this year, and for most of the first-timers it will be a brief visit. Germany handles Australia in Boston. France dispatches Sweden in New York. Netherlands eliminates Morocco in Guadalajara. Brazil takes care of Japan in Houston. Canada edges South Korea in Los Angeles. Senegal knocks out Ecuador in Dallas. Mexico survives Ivory Coast in Mexico City. England gets past Norway in Atlanta. Switzerland beats Austria in Vancouver. Argentina beats Uruguay in a South American derby in Miami. Colombia sends Panama home in Kansas City. Turkey outlasts Egypt in Dallas.
Two matchups in the Round of 32 deserve real attention.
Spain versus Algeria in Los Angeles on July 2nd is a showcase moment for Riyad Mahrez. The Algerian winger has been one of the best players in the world at his peak, and facing the number one team in the tournament on the biggest stage is exactly the kind of game his career needed. Spain advances, but Algeria makes them work for it.
The other matchup worth lingering on is USA versus Bosnia and Herzegovina in San Francisco on July 1st. Bosnia got here by beating Italy on penalty kicks. They came into this tournament with a chip on their shoulder and proved it in the group stage. Advancing as a third-place team from a group that included Switzerland and Canada is no small thing for a nation ranked 65th in the world. The Americans win this one, but Bosnia’s run is already one of the best stories of the tournament. They earned every moment of it.
Round of 16
This is where the tournament gets genuinely wild, and this is where Pick ‘em Paul needs to warn American, Mexican and Canadian readers about what is coming.
All three host nations are going home in the Round of 16.
Mexico falls to England in Mexico City on July 5th. The atmosphere will be electric and hostile in equal measure, and England’s depth and tactical quality under Thomas Tuchel is simply too much for El Tri to handle on home soil. Canada goes out at the hands of the Netherlands in Houston on July 4th. The Dutch are not at their vintage best, but they are good enough to handle a Canadian side that punched above its weight to get this far. The United States faces Belgium in Seattle on July 6th, and this is the toughest pill to swallow. Belgium is ranked 9th in the world, has Courtois back in goal and Doku terrorizing fullbacks on the left. The Americans compete, the crowd in Seattle makes it loud, and Belgium advances anyway.
Three host nations. Three Round of 16 exits. The World Cup is back in the United States for the first time in 32 years and all three North American hosts are watching the quarterfinals from home. That stings, but it is the reality of what happens when you put 48 of the best national teams in the world in the same bracket.
The other Round of 16 matchup you need to watch closely is Spain versus Portugal in Dallas on July 6th. Two of the best six teams in the world, sharing the same language and a border, meeting before the quarterfinals. Ronaldo at 41 years old, on the biggest stage, in what is almost certainly his final World Cup match. Spain advances at +500, but the margin will be slim and the drama will be real.
France beats Germany in Philadelphia on July 4th in a statement performance that announces Les Bleus as the tournament’s most dangerous team. Brazil beats Senegal in New York on July 5th. Argentina takes care of Turkey in Atlanta on July 7th. Colombia sends Switzerland home in Vancouver on July 7th to complete the quarterfinal field.
Quarterfinals
Four matches. Every single one of them worth waking up early or staying up late for.
France beats the Netherlands in Boston on July 9th. The Dutch have quality throughout the squad but France has too much firepower and too much depth. Kylian Mbappe on a tournament stage is a different version of Kylian Mbappe, and the Netherlands does not have an answer for him.
Spain beats Belgium in Los Angeles on July 10th. Belgium gives them their hardest test since the group stage. Doku is a genuine nightmare to defend wide and De Bruyne at 35 still has the passing range to pull Spain apart. Spain’s collective quality wins out in the end, but this is the game that earns the Belgians respect regardless of the result.
England beats Brazil in Miami on July 11th. Write it down. England over Brazil is the result of the tournament, the kind of scoreline that gets remembered for decades. Tuchel sets his team up tactically to neutralize Vinicius Junior, Kane scores, and England reaches the semifinals for the first time since 1990. The scenes in Miami when that final whistle blows will be something else entirely.
Argentina beats Colombia in Kansas City on July 11th. Lionel Messi, at 38 years old, in his final World Cup, walks into Arrowhead Stadium and delivers. Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez carry the attacking load, but it is Messi’s tournament and everyone in that building knows it. Colombia and Luis Diaz make it competitive until the final whistle, but Argentina advances.
Semifinals
Spain versus France. Dallas, July 13th.
This is the match of the tournament. The two best teams in the world by FIFA ranking, meeting in a semifinal with a World Cup final on the line. France has Mbappe at his absolute best. Spain has Pedri orchestrating from the middle of the field and a collective system that no other team in the world can replicate right now. Spain has not lost a competitive match since March 2024. France is the world’s top-ranked team and has the squad depth to match anyone. This goes deep into extra time before Spain finds the goal that sends them through. It is the defining match of this generation of Spanish soccer and it happens to fall in a semifinal rather than the final itself.
England versus Argentina. East Rutherford, July 14th.
The history between these two nations in a World Cup does not need much explaining. The Hand of God. The 1998 penalty shootout. Decades of drama packed into a rivalry that means something different to each country. This is Messi’s final match in a World Cup. Argentina have been the defending champions and the favorites to repeat, and they fall here to an English side playing with the kind of tactical cohesion Tuchel demanded from the first day of training. England reaches the World Cup Final for the first time since 1966. Sixty years of hurt, one game from ending.
The Final: Spain vs England
July 19, 2026. MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Spain +500. England +650.
This is the final Pick ‘em Paul predicted from the start, and it is the right one.
England has overachieved to get here. Beating Brazil and Argentina in back-to-back knockout rounds is a run for the ages and a testament to what Tuchel has built. The noise around Wembley, around every pub in England, around the entire country will be deafening heading into July 19th. Sixty years of waiting, the chance right there.
Spain is the best team in the world. Not the best team on their best day. The best team, consistently, over the longest sustained run of any nation in modern international soccer. They won Euro 2024. They have not lost a competitive match in over two years. Pedri is the best midfielder in the world when healthy. Lamine Yamal, injury permitting, is the most exciting 17-year-old the sport has seen in a generation. Their system is suffocating, their depth is unmatched, and their belief heading into this final is absolute.
JPM Picks Final Call: Spain wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
La Roja lift the trophy in New Jersey on July 19th. England waits another four years.
One Last Thing Before You Go
Here is a question for the JPM Picks readers who made it this far.
All three host nations -- the United States, Mexico and Canada -- are going home in the Round of 16. If you are an American fan sitting at home after the US goes out, who are you adopting as your team for the rest of the tournament? Are you riding with England trying to end 60 years of hurt? Jumping on the Messi farewell tour with Argentina? Backing the Colombian underdog? Pulling for Brazil to bring it home for the first time since 2002?
Drop your answer in the comments. Pick ‘em Paul wants to know.
