JPM Picks 2026 MLB Preview
Division breakdowns, sleepers, fades, and a World Series pick
Baseball Is Broken. The Dodgers Will Three-Peat.
There. I said it. I’ve got nowhere to run from this take, and honestly, I can’t run anyway.
Last year, I refused to pick the Dodgers. Not because I thought they’d lose but because I knew in my gut no one was beating them. At the same time, I felt there was no value in the number. Picking a prohibitive favorite felt lazy. It felt like cheating. So, I talked myself into the Braves from a chat with a co-worker and a free $10 bet from ESPN bet. We all know how that turned out, I proceeded to watch the Dodgers win their second straight World Series title at +240 while I watched my 8-1 digital bet evaporate into thin air.
Here’s what I got wrong: process matters, but sometimes the process leads you straight back to the obvious answer. The Dodgers aren’t just good. They aren’t just well-run. They are operating on a different level than every other organization in baseball, and at some point, intellectual honesty means saying the quiet part out loud.
Baseball is broken right now. The Dodgers broke it.
So, this year, I’m picking the Dodgers at +225. Not because it’s safe. Because it’s correct. And if you’re going to bet on the World Series futures market, you’re not betting against the Dodgers, you’re betting on who survives the AL long enough to make it interesting.
That’s where this preview lives. Let’s get into it.
Quick note: Everything on JPM Picks is Just Paper Money — for entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice, not gambling advice. Bet responsibly, keep it fun, never risk money you can’t afford to lose.
American League East
The Division: Tighter Than It Looks
The AL East is going to be a war again, which is its natural state of being. New York is the consensus AL pick everywhere you look and yes, the Yankees are good. They’re always good. But “always good” and “World Series” are two very different things, and the market is pricing the Yankees like they’ve already won something they haven’t won since 2009.
Toronto made it to the World Series last year and lost in seven games to the Dodgers. Blue Jays fans will tell you they were one bounce away from a championship. They’re right. They’ll also tell you that core is still intact and hungry. They’re right about that too. Toronto is the team in this division with genuine unfinished business, and they enter 2026 as the defending AL pennant winners.
Baltimore continues to be one of the best-run organizations in baseball. Young. Athletic. Quietly dangerous. The Orioles don’t make a lot of noise in February, but they have a way of showing up in September.
Boston is lurking. They were a wild card team last year and they’re not satisfied. Watch them in the second half.
Division Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +255, with Baltimore as the team that keeps everyone honest.
American League Central
The Division: Detroit’s Window Is Open
The AL Central doesn’t get the respect it deserves, and that’s fine. Less attention means better odds.
Detroit made the playoffs last year as a wild card. They pushed Seattle to five games in the ALDS before bowing out, and that series felt closer than the result suggests. The Tigers are young, they’re hungry, and they’re building something real. Tarik Skubal anchors one of the better rotations in the American League. Their lineup has more depth than they did a year ago. FanGraphs projects them as a genuine contender, not just a participant.
Cleveland is Cleveland, perpetually underrated, perpetually competitive. The Guardians don’t spend money like the big market clubs, but they develop talent at an elite level, and they manufacture wins in ways that don’t always show up on a highlight reel. They were in the playoff picture all last year and there’s no obvious reason for that to change.
Minnesota has pieces. Kansas City is still finding their footing after a promising rebuild. Chicago needs more time.
Division Pick: Detroit Tigers +130, and this is not a lukewarm take.
American League West
The Division: Seattle’s Moment or Houston’s Ghost?
Seattle went to the ALCS last year and lost to Toronto in seven. The Mariners have been the “almost” team for so long that it’s practically part of their brand. Almost. This year feels different — but it always feels different in Seattle until it doesn’t.
The pitching staff is legitimate. George Kirby is one of the best starters in the AL. The offense still has questions. If they can answer even one of those questions in the lineup, they’re a World Series contender. If they can’t, they’re a good team that loses in October again.
Houston is fading. I’ll get into this more in the Fade section, but the dynasty is over. The window has closed. The market hasn’t fully priced that in yet.
Texas is rebuilding after a World Series hangover. The Angels remain the most confusing franchise in baseball.
Division Pick: Seattle Mariners +120. Their fans deserve another great year.
National League East
The Division: Everyone’s Sleeping on Atlanta
The NL East is loaded, which makes it one of the most interesting divisions to watch all summer. And according to the market, it’s basically a two-team race before it even starts.
The Mets are the favorites at +170, and honestly, it’s not hard to see why. They grabbed Freddy Peralta this offseason, which is the kind of move that makes you sit up straight. Peralta is a legitimate top-of-rotation arm and the Mets rotation suddenly looks a lot scarier than it did in October. Big payroll, big expectations, and a fanbase that is ready to believe again. The market loves them. I respect them.
Philadelphia is right behind at +175, essentially a coin flip with New York. The Phillies are never out of anything. They’re well-managed, deep, and dangerous in October. If you told me the Phillies won the NL East, I wouldn’t blink.
But here’s where I’m landing: Atlanta at +200. Third choice in a division where the top two teams are separated by five cents on the dollar. The Braves had a down year in 2025 with injuries, terrible timing, and bad luck but the roster is still elite when healthy. Ronald Acuña Jr., when right, is one of the five best players in baseball. The pitching has depth. The front office knows what it’s doing. The market is so distracted by the Mets’ offseason moves and the Phillies’ consistency that they’ve quietly left Atlanta sitting at a number that implies they’re an afterthought. They’re not an afterthought. They’re a bounce-back story with a +200 price tag. That’s the sweet spot for JPM Picks.
Washington and Miami are building toward something. Just not this year.
Division Pick: Atlanta Braves +200 The market is looking the wrong way, and I’m fine with that.
National League Central
The Division: I Can’t Pick My Own Team (And Here’s Why)
Full disclosure before we get into this one: I’m a lifelong Brewers fan. Wisconsin born, and loyal to the Brewers. I want nothing more than to pick the Crew to win this division every single year for the rest of my life.
I also have a futures ticket sitting on the Brewers to finish under 84.5 wins. So.
Here’s the honest case against Milwaukee in 2026: losing Freddy Peralta to the Mets hurts more than the market is acknowledging. Peralta wasn’t just a good pitcher, he was the identity of that rotation. Brandon Woodruff is a question mark coming off an injury-riddled 2025, and frankly, nobody knows if he’s the same guy until we see him healthy and actually pitching. And then there’s Misiorowski the kid throws absolute gas, and I believe in him long-term, (he’s my favorite pitcher on the staff with Tobias Myers gone as well) but the league is going to have a full offseason of tape on him now. Hitters adjust. That’s baseball. I love the Brewers. I bet the under on the Brewers. Both of those things are true and I’m comfortable with that.
So, if not Milwaukee, then who? The Cubs are the obvious answer at better odds and I genuinely considered it, even as a Cubs hater. But I keep landing on Cincinnati at +400.
Here’s the Reds case: they made the playoffs last year, so this isn’t a rebuild narrative, it’s a momentum narrative. Eugenio Suárez came back to Cincinnati and hit 49 home runs last season. 49, and he’s back to protect Elly De La Cruz in the lineup. Hunter Greene is on the verge of becoming one of the nastiest arms in the National League. The front office reinforced the bullpen this winter. And +400 means the market is treating them like a fringe contender when they’re a team with a genuine ceiling if the lineup clicks and Greene takes that next step.
Is it a lock? No, I don’t do locks. Is it interesting at four-to-one? Absolutely.
Division Pick: Cincinnati Reds +400 My heart says Milwaukee, my futures ticket disagrees with my heart, and my brain says take the Reds.
National League West
The Division: And Then There’s LA
What do I even say here?
The Dodgers won the World Series in 2024. Then they won it again in 2025. They enter 2026 as the unanimous favorite with a projected 100-win season and a 28% World Series probability according to early FanGraphs models which, to be clear, means they’re roughly 3x more likely to win it all than the next best team.
Shohei Ohtani is still Shohei Ohtani. Freddie Freeman is still Freddie Freeman. Their rotation has more depth than any other team in baseball. Their front office has more resources and more intelligence than anyone else operating right now.
San Diego has talent. San Francisco is interesting in a low-key way. Arizona made a World Series run a couple years ago and people haven’t forgotten that. Colorado exists.
But this division belongs to the Dodgers, and it isn’t close. The question for NL West teams isn’t “can we win the division” — it’s “can we get a wild card and maybe catch the Dodgers on a bad night in October.” The answer to the second question is almost certainly no.
Division Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers. -600 Obviously.
Three Sleepers Worth Your Attention
1. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds made the playoffs last year and the market is somehow still treating them like a fringe contender. And yet here they are, sitting at +400 to win the NL Central. You don’t need the Reds to be great to make that number interesting. You just need them to be better than the market thinks. I believe they are.
2. Atlanta Braves
I picked Atlanta last year and they broke my heart. I’m picking them again, not because I’m stubborn, but because the case is stronger in 2026. A full healthy season from Acuña changes everything. The rotation has depth. The market is so focused on the Mets and Phillies that Atlanta is sitting at +200 in their own division, third choice on the board. That’s not a reflection of their talent. That’s a reflection of where the attention is pointing right now.
Atlanta as a World Series dark horse, not the pick, but the team that could genuinely surprise if the Dodgers stumble.
3. Baltimore Orioles
Young core. Elite front office. A farm system that keeps producing. The Orioles have been building quietly for years and the window is open. They’re not going to sneak up on anyone anymore. The league knows they’re coming, but they’re still being priced as a “nice story” rather than a legitimate contender. That gap between perception and reality is where value lives.
Watch Baltimore in August. If they’re in the race in August, they’ll be dangerous in October.
Two Teams to Fade
1. Houston Astros
I don’t enjoy this one. The Astros dynasty was legitimately impressive, a sustained run of excellence that deserves respect. But it’s over.
Houston missed the playoffs entirely in 2025. The aging core that carried them through their run is no longer operating at peak levels. The farm system hasn’t replenished the way it needs to. And yet the market still prices the Astros with dynasty tax, a legacy premium baked into their odds that doesn’t reflect the actual roster they’re running out there in 2026.
This isn’t about being contrarian. This is about looking at what the team is versus what the brand still implies. The Astros brand says perennial contender. The 2026 roster says fighting for a wild card spot. When those two things diverge, that’s where the edge lives. Fade Houston futures. Respect the dynasty. Don’t pay for it.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
Yeah. I know. I already told you I have a futures ticket on the Brewers under 84.5 wins, so this shouldn’t come as a surprise. But it bears repeating in plain language: I am a lifelong Brewers fan, and I am fading my own team. That’s not a bit. That’s the process...
Milwaukee is a well-run organization that has earned every bit of goodwill it has built. They’ll be competitive. They’ll grind. But winning 85+ games in 2026 with this rotation situation? I’m not paying for that. Under 84.5, small ticket, zero guilt.
The Pick: Dodgers over Tigers
Here’s the thing about having a process, sometimes the process leads you right back to the obvious answer. The honest move is to stop fighting it.
Los Angeles Dodgers +130 versus Detroit Tigers +1100. World Series 2026.
The Dodgers are going to three-peat. I believe this more than I’ve believed any sports prediction in recent memory. They are better than everyone else. They are better-run than everyone else. And unless something catastrophic happens to their roster between now and October, they are going to be standing on a field in late October holding a trophy again.
The Tigers are my AL pick not because I think they’ll beat the Dodgers, I don’t. But, because I think they’re the most interesting story in the American League. A young team, trending up, with long enough odds to make the futures bet meaningful. If you’re going to bet the AL pennant market, Detroit is where I’m looking.
Dodgers win in five. I learned my lesson last year. Never again.
The JPM Take: Where the Odds Are Lying
A few spots worth watching from a pure probability standpoint as we head into the season:
The Dodgers’ World Series price will look short all year, and it probably is short. But “short” doesn’t mean wrong. Don’t let the odds talk you out of the right answer, that’s the mistake I made last year.
Houston futures are inflated by legacy pricing. If you’re looking for a fade spot in the NL or AL futures markets, that’s your clearest signal.
Detroit and Baltimore division odds are worth a look before Spring Training ends. Both teams are projected better than their current market perception, and that gap closes as the season approaches.
The AL East is going to be chaotic. Toronto, New York, and Baltimore are all legitimate playoff teams. That means wild card spots in the AL will be genuinely competitive, and the division title will come down to September. Those late-season games are going to have real juice.
As always, this is JPM Picks. Just Paper Money. The analysis is real; (as much as it can be for a guy on the internet), the money is not. Watch the lines, track the movement, and never bet more than you can afford to learn from.
See you at first pitch.
Don’t forget to comment and let us know your predictions this baseball season.
— Pick ‘em Paul
JPM Picks is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Not gambling advice. Always bet responsibly.