My First Mock Draft (And Yes, I Ignored My Own Advice at Pick One)

First round predictions, and a painful note about my Packers.

As a sports fan, I have dreamed about two jobs my entire life.

The first one is NFL general manager. I wrote about that a few months back when I played pretend Raiders GM for an offseason and laid out exactly how I would have spent their mountain of cap space and draft capital. Spoiler: none of it happened. The Maxx Crosby trade with Baltimore fell apart. The grand pick-trading vision never materialized. The Raiders signed Kirk Cousins and are going to ride him until Fernando Mendoza is ready. It was a perfectly reasonable outcome that I did not predict.

The second dream job is Mel Kiper Jr.’s for ESPN.

I have been watching Mel Kiper break down draft prospects since I was twelve or thirteen years old. Back when ESPN would run four hours of pre-draft coverage and half of it was just Kiper pointing at a screen and saying words that sounded important. I did not understand most of it at the time. I watched anyway. There is something about that job, the obsessive scouting, the willingness to make 32 public predictions and get half of them wrong with complete confidence, that I have always found genuinely compelling.

So here we are. My first public mock draft.

I want to be clear about what this is and what it is not. I am not a scout. I have not been to a single pro day or combine interview. My opinions on these prospects are informed by three of the best mock drafts currently published, watching a lot of college football, and a healthy amount of reading other articles I wish I could get paid to write. What I am offering is a first-round prediction from someone who has followed this process obsessively for over twenty years as an amateur and is doing it in public for the first time.

Some of these will be right. Some will be wrong. That is the deal.

Quick note: Everything on JPM Picks is Just Paper Money, for entertainment and educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not gambling advice.

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Before We Get to the Picks: One Confirmed Trade, One I Am Predicting

Draft day is never just 32 picks in order, and this one already had a significant move before anyone walked to a podium. One trade is done and baked into my board. One is a prediction I feel confident enough to build around.

The Cowboys move up to get Sonny Styles (my prediction). Dallas needs defensive help badly. They allowed 30 points per game last season, the worst mark in the NFL. Styles is the most versatile defensive piece in this class, and I do not think the Cowboys are waiting until picks 12 and 20 to get him. In this projection, Dallas trades those two picks to Cleveland in exchange for the Browns’ sixth overall selection and a late-round pick. Cleveland ends up with three first-round picks. Jerry Jones ends up with the linebacker he actually wanted.

The Giants get a second first-round pick from Cincinnati. The Bengals traded Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to New York before the draft, picking up the Giants’ tenth overall selection in return. The Bengals presumably wanted to replace Trey Hendrickson’s production after he left for Baltimore. The Giants now hold picks five and ten and can address two different needs on one night.

I am not predicting additional trades beyond the Cowboys deal because I am not comfortable doing that as an amateur mock drafter. There will be more on Thursday. There always are.

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The Picks

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

I spent a lot of words a few months ago arguing the Raiders should trade this pick and wait for the 2027 quarterback class. Then the Maxx Crosby deal collapsed, the extra assets never materialized, and reality did what it usually does to a well-reasoned plan. Mendoza is the right pick here and I know it. He is accurate, smart, and ready to learn behind Kirk Cousins before eventually taking over. I still think the 2027 quarterback class is historically loaded. I also think Fernando Mendoza is a good football player who deserved to go first overall. Both things are true. Welcome to Las Vegas.

2. New York Jets: Arvell Reese, LB/edge, Ohio State

The Jets take the most versatile front-seven prospect in the class and immediately the question begins. Is this another Jets bust? Reese has first-team All-American production and the kind of athletic profile that makes defensive coordinators smile. He can rush the passer, drop into coverage, and set the edge. The Jets will give him every opportunity to succeed. Whether that matters is a different conversation. This is the right pick. History is just loud in New York.

3. Arizona Cardinals: David Bailey, edge, Texas Tech

Bailey led the FBS in pressure rate last season and is about as polished a pass rusher as this class has to offer. Arizona needs juice off the edge in a division that still includes Matt Stafford, Sam Darnold, and Brock Purdy. This makes too much sense to overthink.

4. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

A running back in the top five certainly raises eyebrows. Love is not a traditional running back. He is a game-breaking weapon who can operate out of the backfield, flex wide, and create on contact. Pairing him with Cam Ward gives the Titans an identity on offense they have not had in years.

5. New York Giants: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

This would be the first safety taken in the top five in over a decade and it would be worth it. Downs is the smartest defensive player in this class. He reads offenses the way quarterbacks read defenses, which is the rarest trait in the secondary. John Harbaugh-coached teams always maximize that kind of player.

6. Dallas Cowboys (via trade with Cleveland): Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

This is why I believe in the Cowboys moving up. Styles should not be available at six and probably will not be in real life. If Dallas executes this trade, they get the most athletic linebacker prospect in years for a defense that was historically bad last season. The Cowboys did not fix that problem in free agency. This is how they fix it.

7. Washington Commanders: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

Tate is a clean route runner with legitimate big-play ability and Washington gets him opposite Terry McLaurin. Jayden Daniels now has two legitimate weapons on the outside. The Commanders offense suddenly looks very different than it did at the end of last season.

8. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami

The arm length concerns are real. His production and power are also real. The Saints need edge juice and Bain is capable of being a Day 1 contributor even if the path to dominance is not perfectly straight. I think the risk is worth it at eight.

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

Patrick Mahomes is working back from a torn ACL and the Chiefs offense desperately needs reliable pass catchers beyond Rashee Rice. Tyson has missed time due to injuries in college, so there is risk here, but when he has been healthy he is elite. Mahomes buying time and finding Tyson in the back of the end zone is a thing I want to see happen.

10. New York Giants (via Cincinnati): Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

After going defense at five, the Giants use their second first-round pick on the offensive line. Mauigoa has started over forty games in college and projects as a long-term anchor at either tackle or guard. The Giants come away from the top ten with a safety and a blocker. That is a good night.

11. Miami Dolphins: Spencer Fano, OL, Utah

Miami traded away Jaylen Waddle and needs playmakers, but the offensive line situation is the more pressing priority with Malik Willis now under center. Fano is the best all-around blocker in this class and fits exactly the zone-run system Miami wants to run. The foundation has to be there before anything else matters.

12. Cleveland Browns (via trade with Dallas): Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

Cleveland trades down, collects two more first-round picks, and still lands a premium offensive tackle prospect. Proctor has the physical traits of a franchise left tackle. The technique needs work, but the Browns’ offensive line room has the coaching to develop him. This is a good outcome for Cleveland even after moving down.

13. Los Angeles Rams (via Atlanta): Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

The Rams are in win-now mode with Matthew Stafford, and Freeling’s combination of size and athleticism makes him a legitimate top-ten talent playing in the thirteenth slot. Les Snead does not overthink value when it falls to him. This does not feel like an overthought pick.

14. Baltimore Ravens: Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State

The Ravens lost Tyler Linderbaum to Las Vegas in free agency. That is a significant hole to fill in front of Lamar Jackson. Ioane is the cleanest interior offensive line prospect in the draft. He will not replace Linderbaum directly, but he will help stabilize a unit that cannot afford to be the weak link on a championship-caliber team.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

Sadiq ran a 4.39 at the combine at 241 pounds. He had one of the best athletic showings of any tight end prospect in recent draft history. Zac Robinson’s offense in Tampa Bay is going to run two-tight-end sets. Cade Otton and Sadiq on the field at the same time is a legitimate nightmare for opposing linebackers.

16. New York Jets (via Indianapolis): Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

After going defense at two, the Jets use their second first-round pick on a weapon for Geno Smith. Cooper was Fernando Mendoza’s favorite target during Indiana’s national championship run. He is fast, physical, and reliable in traffic. The Jets’ receiving corps was genuinely empty last year. This helps.

17. Detroit Lions: Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

Taylor Decker is gone and the Lions need a replacement at left tackle so Penei Sewell can slide to his natural side. Miller has started every game since he arrived at Clemson, fifty-four total. He is the kind of offensive lineman Detroit’s culture was built to maximize.

18. Minnesota Vikings: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

Eight career interceptions. Plays both safety spots. Natural fit in Brian Flores’s defense. Minnesota has been planning for life after Harrison Smith for two years. Thieneman is the answer they have been waiting for.

19. Carolina Panthers: KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M

Concepcion is a playmaker after the catch in a way that Carolina’s offense has been missing. Tetairoa McMillan was a great pick last year. Concepcion next to him gives Bryce Young two dynamic options and legitimate reason for optimism heading into 2026.

20. Cleveland Browns (originally Green Bay Packers via Dallas Cowboys): Denzel Boston, WR, Washington

I need to pause here for a moment.

This pick belongs to the Browns because the Cowboys traded it to Cleveland as part of the Sonny Styles deal. And it belongs to the Cowboys because Green Bay traded it to Dallas as part of the Micah Parsons trade.

Which means my first mock draft on JPM Picks does not include a single Green Bay Packers selection in the first round. I am a lifelong Packers fan writing a mock draft in which my team is completely absent from the Thursday night conversation. This is fine. Everything is fine.

Boston had eleven touchdowns last season and gives Cleveland the WR1 they have been looking for. This is a good pick. I am definitely fine.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Makai Lemon, WR, USC

The reigning Biletnikoff Award winner falls into the mid-twenties and the Steelers take him. Whoever is under center in Pittsburgh next season will have Lemon, DK Metcalf, and Michael Pittman Jr. to throw to. That is a real receiving corps.

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Akheem Mesidor, edge, Miami

Mesidor is older for a prospect and has some injury history. He is also as physically ready as any edge rusher in this class and can contribute as a three-down player immediately. Jim Harbaugh teams are built on the line of scrimmage. Mesidor fits that identity.

23. Philadelphia Eagles: Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State

Lane Johnson is 36 years old. Iheanachor has the tools to eventually be his successor and is landing in the best possible developmental situation in the NFL. The Eagles do not waste high picks on offensive linemen who cannot eventually start.

24. Cleveland Browns (via Jacksonville): Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

Cleveland leaves round one with three picks and addresses three legitimate needs. McCoy has not played since tearing his ACL in January 2025, but his pre-injury tape showed a top-ten talent. His pro day run quieted most of the durability questions. The Browns are betting on the talent being worth the wait.

25. Chicago Bears: Zion Young, DE, Missouri

Montez Sweat needs a running mate. Young generated 6.5 sacks and 46 pressures last season. The Bears have not used a top-fifty pick on an edge rusher since 2016. The timing on this one makes sense.

26. Buffalo Bills: Keldric Faulk, edge, Auburn

Faulk is young, long, and scheme-versatile in a way that works alongside Greg Rousseau and Bradley Chubb. His 2025 sack numbers were down from the year before, but his physical tools are legitimate. Buffalo bets on development and has the defensive infrastructure to make it work.

27. San Francisco 49ers: Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah

Trent Williams is 38 years old heading into training camp. The 49ers need to start planning, and Lomu from Utah is athletic enough to play either tackle spot while developing behind one of the best offensive lines in football. This is a forward-looking pick that makes present-tense sense.

28. Houston Texans: Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State

An already elite Texans defense gets better on the interior. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter on the outside need an interior that can win its own battles. McDonald is a powerful, ascending three-down defensive tackle who makes everyone around him better.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (via LA Rams): Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

The Chiefs lost Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson from their cornerback room. Hood is long, physical, and experienced. He had seventeen pass breakups over the past two seasons. Kansas City gets their starting cornerback without having to reach for one earlier in the round.

30. Miami Dolphins (via Denver): Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

The Dolphins allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72 percent of their passes last season. That was the worst mark in the NFL. Delane is a technically sound man-coverage corner with four years of college experience and twenty-seven career pass breakups. Getting him at thirty is genuine value for a secondary that needed a complete rebuild.

31. New England Patriots: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo

McNeil-Warren is a hybrid defender at 6-foot-3 with the athleticism to cover tight ends and the instincts to blitz. He forced ten fumbles in four college seasons. New England’s defense has been in transition for two years. This is the kind of player who adds versatility to a unit that needs it.

32. Seattle Seahawks: Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame

Kenneth Walker III is in Kansas City. Zach Charbonnet is coming off a torn ACL. Seattle uses the last pick of the round to address a real need with a powerful, efficient runner who averaged six yards per carry in college and scored eleven touchdowns last year. The Seahawks close round one by doing exactly what they always do, finding value at a position other teams overlook.

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The JPM Take

Two things about this exercise I want to be honest about.

First, the quarterback class. Ty Simpson is going to slide in this draft. I have him falling out of round one entirely, and I think the Cardinals should resist any temptation to trade into thirty for him. Arizona already has a high first-round pick coming next year, and the 2027 quarterback class, Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Julian Sayin, is shaping up to be historically loaded. If Simpson is available at thirty-four to open round two, take him there and keep your powder dry for 2027. If he falls even further, even better.

Second, the Browns quietly had one of the best mock draft nights I could construct. Three first-round picks. A tackle, a wide receiver, and a cornerback to address their three biggest needs. General managers who know how to trade down do not get enough credit. Andrew Berry is very good at this.

Thirty-two picks. One first public mock. All of it on the record.

If I nail twelve of them, I will feel like Mel Kiper. If I nail eight, I will feel like a guy who watched a lot of football and made educated guesses. Either way, we will know by Friday morning.

Good luck on your boards.

This is JPM Picks. Just Paper Money, for entertainment and educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not gambling advice. Always bet responsibly and never risk more than you can afford to lose.

What is the pick you think I got most wrong? Hit reply and tell me. I can take it.