The Scoreboard: My 2026 MLB Predictions, One Month In

The hits, the misses, and one futures bet that is interesting.

Back in February, I told you Atlanta was being slept on at +200 while the market chased the Mets and their shiny new rotation piece. I told you Houston’s dynasty tax was inflated and their window was closed. I told you the NL Central was going to be more interesting than anyone was giving it credit for. And I told you, with full transparency, that I had a futures ticket on my own Brewers to finish under 84.5 wins.

One month in. Time to check the work.

The Hit: Atlanta Is the Best Team in Baseball

Twenty-four wins and ten losses. That is quietly the best record in baseball right now, better than the Dodgers, better than the Yankees, better than everyone. Atlanta at +200 in February was the call I believed in more than any other pick in this preview, and one month in, that bet is looking like it might be the best value I have found since the “lost ticket”.

Chris Sale is a big part of why. The reigning Cy Young winner is 6-1 with a 2.14 ERA through seven starts. He is not showing any signs of slowing down, and he is the clearest example of what a true ace looks like one month into a season. Six wins already. Keep that number in mind, it comes back up when we get to Milwaukee.

The market was looking at the Mets’ offseason moves and the Phillies’ consistency and forgot to check on the reigning NL powerhouse sitting right there in the same division. Atlanta is not an afterthought. Right now, they are the standard.

The Scoreboard: Division by Division

Let’s run through the full card.

NL East: Braves Leading, Mets Struggling

My pick: Atlanta +200. Result: Leading the division at 24-10, best record in baseball. The Mets, who the market loved at +170, sit at 11-22. That is one of the worst records in the entire league. I said fade the noise around New York’s offseason moves. So far, that was the right call.

NL Central: The Best Division in Baseball

My pick: Cincinnati Reds +400. Current result: The Reds are 20-14 and playing well, but they sit in third place because every single team in this division is above .500 right now. All five. The Cubs are leading at 21-12, and if you want to argue that is an early miss on my part, I understand it. What I will not back down from is the bigger point: I said this division would be more interesting than the market was pricing in February, and I was right about that. The NL Central is the best division in baseball through one month, and the Reds are very much in it.

NL West: Dodgers Doing Dodger Things

My pick: Dodgers -600. Current result: Leading the division at 20-13. No surprises here. The whole point of picking LA was not to find value on a winner, it was intellectual honesty about what the best organization in baseball looks like. Still on track.

AL East: The Yankees Got Hot, Toronto Did Not

My pick: Toronto Blue Jays +255. Current result: The Yankees are running the division at 22-11 and the Blue Jays are sitting at 16-17. This one is a miss through one month. Toronto was the defending AL pennant winner and I believed the unfinished business narrative. The Yankees are making them look like they finished their business already. I am not ready to say the Blue Jays are dead in April, but this is not the start they needed.

AL Central: Cleveland Is Cleveland

My pick: Detroit Tigers +130. Current result: Cleveland is leading at 18-16, Detroit is right behind at 17-17. The Tigers are not cooked, they are in the thick of it, but they are not leading the division the way I projected. Cleveland being competitive is exactly what I said in the preview, they are “perpetually underrated, perpetually competitive.” Consider that part of the take validated. The division pick is murkier.

AL West: The Mariners Are Treading Water

My pick: Seattle Mariners +120. Current result: The Mariners are 16-18 and not leading the division. This is another miss through one month. I said Seattle felt different this year. Right now it feels exactly the same as every other year in Seattle. Plenty of season left, but this is not the start I was looking for.

The Houston Fade: Confirmed

Houston is 13-21. I said the dynasty was over and the market was pricing legacy instead of the actual 2026 roster. The scoreboard agrees. The Astros are not a contender right now, they are a warning about what happens when a dynasty ages and you keep paying for the brand. Fade confirmed.

The Complicated One: My Brewers, The Miz, and a Futures Ticket That Is Sweating

Okay. Let’s talk about Milwaukee.

The Brewers are 18-15, which is above .500, which is a problem for my under 84.5 wins futures ticket. I laid out the honest case against them in February: losing Freddy Peralta hurt, Woodruff was a question mark, and the league was going to have a full offseason of tape on Jacob Misiorowski. I said hitters adjust, that’s baseball.

Here’s where I was partially right: Misiorowski is 2-2. Compare that to Chris Sale, the guy I just spent a section praising, who is 6-1 right now. That is what a true ace looks like in the win column in late April. The Miz has the stuff. Through six starts he leads all of baseball with 590strikeouts and his velocity is genuinely in a class of its own, the man is throwing 102 mile per hour heaters and breaking records with them. But wins are wins, and 2-2 through six starts is not ace territory yet.

In fairness to Misiorowski, the hitters have not fully figured him out. His ERA and strikeout numbers suggest the league is not exactly sitting on his pitches yet. The adjustment I predicted has not fully materialized. I’ll call that a partial hit rather than a confirmed prediction.

Now for the part where the Brewers universe does exactly what the Brewers universe does.

Brandon Woodruff is on the 15-day IL. Of course he is. I said in February that nobody knew if he was the same guy until we saw him healthy and pitching. He is currently neither of those things. And as of May 1st, Misiorowski left his start against the Nationals with a right hamstring cramp after throwing five and a third hitless innings. The rotation concerns I flagged before the season even started are playing out in real time.

Now here is the part I did not tell you about in February.

I have been placing individual game bets on the Brewers to win throughout April. Hedging my own futures ticket. Rooting for them as a fan while betting against their season win total. Both things at the same time. That is so perfectly Pick ‘em Paul that I am not even embarrassed about it. The futures ticket is a small bet. I genuinely do not lose sleep over it. But I will admit I have been enjoying cheering for Milwaukee wins again instead of quietly hoping they lose a few.

And then the injury reports started coming in. And suddenly my under ticket is perking up and looking at me like, “were you worried? I had this the whole time.”

The Brewers injury woes just noticed my futures bet. Here we go.

The Big Picture: Still Dodgers over Tigers

Los Angeles is 20-13 and leading the NL West. Detroit is 17-17 and very much alive in the AL Central. My World Series pick, Dodgers over Tigers, is still standing. Neither team has done anything to make me walk it back.

The Yankees at 22-11 are the most interesting wrinkle in the AL picture right now. If they hold this pace, the Tigers will need a wild card path to the World Series rather than a division title run. That is a harder road, but it is not a closed one. October is a long way from May.

The Dodgers are the Dodgers. Until someone on that roster goes down hard, the pick stands.

The Honest Scorecard

Clear hits: Atlanta, Houston fade, NL Central being the best division in baseball.

Clear misses through one month: Toronto, Seattle.

Still in play: Detroit, Dodgers World Series pick, the Reds being a legitimate contender.

Actively sweating: the Brewers under 84.5 wins ticket, which is either going to look very smart or very overdue depending on how the rotation holds up.

We will do this again at the All-Star break with a full mid-season report. By then we will know a lot more about whether Toronto and Detroit are real contenders, whether the Reds can hold pace in the NL Central, and whether Woodruff ever actually pitches again in 2026.

How is your April looking? Drop your best and worst call in the comments. I showed you mine.