The Receipts: My World Cup Final Four Is the Actual Final Four
Spain vs. France. England vs. Argentina. Exactly as I called it in June.
Back in June, before a single ball was kicked, I published a full 2026 World Cup preview. All 48 teams, every group, a complete knockout bracket, and a champion. You can read the whole thing here. I am bringing it up now because the semifinals kick off Tuesday, and the four teams still standing are Spain, France, England and Argentina.
That was my final four. Not close to my final four. My exact final four, in the exact semifinal matchups I predicted. France against Spain. England against Argentina. Both of them on the schedule this week, right where the preview said they would be.
I have been doing this long enough to know you post the receipts when you are wrong, so you have earned the right to post them when you are right. This is that post. But in the JPM Picks tradition, we are doing the whole ledger, because the betting side of my World Cup did not go nearly as smoothly as the prediction side. Let’s roll through all of it.
What the Preview Got Right
The final four and both semifinal matchups are the headline, but a few other calls from June deserve a mention.
The boldest one was this: all three host nations go home in the Round of 16. That is exactly what happened. I also had England specifically eliminating Mexico in that round, and Belgium specifically ending the American run. Both hit. The preview had Spain knocking out Portugal in the knockout rounds, and Spain did just that, sending Ronaldo home in what was almost certainly his final World Cup match.
And the big one is still alive. My champion from day one was Spain at +500, with a Spain over England final. Spain plays Tuesday. England plays Wednesday. The final I predicted in June is two results away from being real.
What the Preview Got Wrong
Transparency is the brand, so here is the other column.
I had Brazil reaching the quarterfinals and losing to England there. Instead Brazil went out to Norway in the Round of 16. That one stings twice, because I spent a chunk of the preview arguing that Norway was a one-man team that could not win on Haaland alone. Haaland put two past Brazil and dragged Norway to their first quarterfinal in history. I will eat that one, that’s what I do.
I had Morocco out in the Round of 32 at the hands of the Netherlands. Morocco beat Canada 3-0 in the Round of 16 and made the quarterfinals before France finally stopped them. I also had Colombia getting past Switzerland. Colombia went out on penalties instead, and that miss cost me real money, which we will get to.
The Betting Ledger: A Tale of Two Tournaments
Here is where the story gets honest. My bracket was a lot better than my betting, at least for the first three weeks.
The group stage was rough. From the opener on June 11 through the end of group play, I went 9 and 17 on World Cup bets and finished the stretch down about two and a half units. Too many parlays, too many spreads on favorites that won but did not cover, and a couple of bets I made because I wanted action rather than because I had an edge. The one thing keeping that stretch respectable was the draw market. England and Ghana at +600 was my biggest hit of the whole tournament, and the Portugal and Colombia scoreless draw at +270 was not far behind.
The knockout rounds flipped everything. From July 1 through the quarterfinals I went 11 and 8 and finished up more than 18 units, right around a 30 percent return. The difference was not luck. It was discipline. I stopped forcing exotic parlays and started making bigger, simpler bets on matchups I had already studied for the preview. France over Morocco. Spain over Belgium. England over Norway. Morocco over Canada, twice. The preview work was the edge, and the knockouts are where I finally bet like it.
Put the two stretches together and my full World Cup record is 20 and 25. A losing record. And I am up about 16 units with a return north of 17 percent on everything I risked. Read those two sentences again, because that is the entire JPM Picks philosophy in one place. Win rate is a vanity stat. The price you get and the size you bet are what pay you. You can go 20 and 25 and profit if your wins come at the right numbers, and you can go 25 and 20 and bleed if they do not.
The Birthday Bet
One personal note from the ledger. On July 1, my birthday, the United States played Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32. I made the biggest single wager of my tournament, probably of my life as a bettor. on the US moneyline as a birthday present to myself. Heavy favorite, short price, no shame. They won, and that one bet paid for most of my group stage sins in a single afternoon.
Five days later the US drew Belgium in the Round of 16, the exact matchup and the exact exit my preview predicted. I could not bring myself to bet against my own country, even with my own bracket telling me how it would end. So, I bet the draw as a middle ground and lost. No regrets. Some bets are about the numbers and some are about being a fan, and I try to always know which one I am making.
One Lesson From Saturday
Saturday gave me a perfect example of why bet structure matters as much as picking the right team. I had Argentina against Switzerland two ways. A straight bet on Argentina to win in regulation, and a parlay on England and Argentina both advancing. Argentina was level after 90 minutes and won it in extra time. Same game, same team, same correct read on who was better. The regulation bet lost and the advancing bet won. The market gives you a dozen ways to bet the same opinion, and choosing the wrong container for a right opinion still costs you money.
What Is Riding on This Week
Spain against France on Tuesday is the matchup I called the game of the tournament back in June, and I picked Spain to survive it. England against Argentina on Wednesday decides whether my predicted final actually happens. The preview said Spain lifts the trophy at MetLife on July 19. Nothing that has happened in the last month has talked me out of it.
So here is my question for the JPM Picks readers. Which semifinal result would surprise you more, France ending Spain’s two-year unbeaten run on Tuesday, or Argentina and Messi spoiling the Spain versus England final I have had on paper since June? Is the conspiracy for Messi to win another World Cup real? Drop your answer in the comments, and if you have a final four story of your own from this tournament, good or ugly, I want to hear that too.
Just Paper Money. Not financial advice. Do your own homework.
